Global auto output could fall by 20 per cent in 2020

Global automotive manufacturing is expected to take months to recovery. Photo: FCA

Global light vehicle production is now expected to fall more than 20 per cent to around 71 million units in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing recession, according to a top automotive forecaster.

LMC Automotive produces market analysis and forecasts for the automotive industry and it suggests the pandemic will cost global automakers 19 million units in lost production this year.

It also warned those projections could slip further, depending on how quickly major regions recover, says Automotive News.

In North America, where most vehicle production remains shut down in April, automakers have been forced to delay introductions or planned ramp-ups of several new vehicles, including the Tesla Model Y, the Ford Mustang Mach-E, and redesigned versions of Fiat Chrysler's Jeep Grand Cherokee and General Motors' full-size SUVs, LMC said.

The analyst said it expects vehicle sales will bottom out in April in North America and Europe, with post-pandemic recovery "unlikely to be rapid" in the coming months.

China, which was among the first countries hit by the novel coronavirus, already has restarted most of its auto plants and now expects to see a sales decline of just 12 per cent this year, LMC said.

Expectations for a swift economic recovery have plummeted as the virus has swept most of the globe, plunging all major regions into recession, according to researcher IHS Markit.

While the company expects to see the beginnings of an upturn by the end of the year, current projections "are likely to be revised down" as the pandemic plays out.

In New Zealand, there has been a prediction of a 40- to 50 per cent decrease in sales this year while Mazda NZ stated at its virtual press conference today that it will be a “long, slow road to recovery”.

Mazda NZ managing director, David Hodge, said at the CX-30 zoom press conference that “April, May and June” would prove slow.

The company said that the sales forecast will change “day-by-day, week-by-week and month-by-month”.

Mazda NZ will open its dealerships on Tuesday for contactless sales and servicing.

The temporary closing on factories around the world is also expected to have an impact on the release on new vehicles. Mazda NZ says that the launch of its special Takami models will be delayed from the expected dates of later this year.